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| Тема |
 Re: ЗА или ПРОТИВ [re: Henman] |
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| Автор |
naja_haje ((не)познат) |
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| Публикувано | 15.11.12 00:38 |
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И още едно:
So, the question: Why don’t players hit two first serves instead? If you do the maths, adjusting for probability of winning the points conditional on having gotten a first or second serve in, players have a 2-3% expected value edge with their first serve over their second serve. In other words, they should be doing two first serves — hitting the ball as hard as they can twice — rather than doing a hard first serve, and a spun second serve.
Това, разбира се, не е цялата картинка и заключението на автора е, че :
While it might seem that there is an opportunity here waiting to be exploited, I’m not convinced. The trouble is that there is an unstated assumption, one of statistical independence between a player’s first and second serves. We are saying that a player, having missed their first serve, will still get their harder second serve in with that usual 65% likelihood. Or, to turn it around, we’re saying that knowing they have no safe second serve to rely on, players will still get their first serve in with a 65% probability. Both are almost certainly.... ами прочетете оригиналът пък
A man only sees what he wants to see...
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