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Един гей парад не може да ми попречи, по никакъв начин.
На мен също. Но! Виж какво пише в тази извадка във връзка с разпада на знайните 18 от общо 20 цивилизации до сега.
Among the many examples, each of which is usually exhibited in usually as many as 18 of the 20, as they march down the same road are the assertion of political power by a religious group seeking return to the values of the past, effeminacy in the male population, increased political power for women, and all volunteer armies.
Освен другите причини за разпада на цивилизациите, тези четири се наблюдават неизменно във всяка от осемнадесетте.
1. Взимане на властта от религиозни групи хора целящи връщане към ценностите на миналото.
2. Склонност към женственост от страна на мъжкото население.
3. Придобиване на политическа власт от все повече жени.
4. Изцяло наемна войска.
Да чуваш някаква тревожна камбанка в далечината?
А ето го и целият текст:
A Study of History
By Arnold Joseph Toynbee (AT)
1. Several books were written covering the same material. The main work – 12 volumes, written over approximately 30 years from 1925 to 1955 totaling approximately 7000 pages. The first five cover conceptual framework and the four stages of the 20 prior dominant civilizations. The next three cover characteristics and institutions of these civilizations at their zenith and as they start to disintegrate, i.e., more detail on the last 2 stages. Nine and ten cover contacts between these civilizations in their own time and relationships to former and successor civilizations. There is some confusion about 11 and 12, which I haven’t seen. My understanding is AT deviated from his original plan here.
2. Abridgement by D. C. Somervell (DCS), endorsed by AT.
AT Vols. I – VI - 617 pages in DCS Vol. I
First printing 1946
17th printing 1963
3. AT Vols. VII – X - 413 pages in DCS, Vol. II.
First printing 1957, many cannot be included as part of later printings of Vol. I.
Includes summaries of what appears to be Vol. XI – XII entitled Law and Freedom - History and The Prospects of Western Civilization. However, in reading critical reviews, I do not believe this is what Vol. XII covered, and the cover page says it only goes to X.
4. Abridgement by Toynbee himself, 576 pages, written with Jane Caplan (JC), a historian with several unrelated works of her own. According to the Harris County Library, the last revision was 1988 and there is only one copy in the system. The Houston Public Library said altogether they serve 4 million people. Since Toynbee died in 1975, JC must have been the one who revised it. The No. 1 NY Times bestseller in the early 1960's, considered to be superior to Somervell’s, but is out of print and has virtually disappeared from libraries and bookstores. It cannot even be ordered in the United States, while Somervell’s more complex and lengthy version of the same material, though rare, can be located and ordered with a little effort.
All three of the above were published by Oxford University Press in London, though the Oxford United States office in NC has no record of either of the JC AT publications except under Jane Caplan’s name and cannot supply even her work.
5. Reconsiderations, written by AT alone, copyright 1972, 740 pages where he discusses the hundreds of critical articles written about his 10 volume work, pro and con, including ones written by some of the leading historical scholars and political periodicals of the time, ranging from “brilliant” and “most important book ever written except the Bible” – too pseudohistory” and “too broad a topic to manage for any one human being”. There is no copy of the 12-volume work or of Reconsiderations alone at any public library in Harris County, Texas or any bookstore which has a website. There is only one copy of the AT abridgement, which is owned by the Harris County Public Library system, and several copies of the Somervell aridgement, including one at Barnes & Noble, one at Half Price Books, and one at the Houston Public Library. The Used North American Books website located a copy of Reconsiderations at Four Corners Bookstore in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. Oxford U Press suggested calling the European office. Barnes & Noble says they have no ability to order but suggested university libraries and Amazon or other major websites. Used books also located a copy in San Francisco, but on checking they also found the book had disappeared either stolen or misplaced. There is supposed to be a bound volume containing the AT Abridgement and Reconsiderations together.
A Short Summary of What the Books Cover
AT describes the rise and fall of 20 prior civilizations in recorded history which were dominant in their own time and place, just as the western Christian civilization in the U. S. is today. Five others are also discussed to some extent but found not to qualify. Western Christian is the offspring of the first generation Minoan and second generation Greco-Roman civilizations’ Third generation "fossils"(one of several defined terms used setting *) of 19 of the 20 remain in the world today and each of the last 14 had a parent in one of 7 of the ___in the first generation (2 white, 2 yellow, 1 Asian Indian, 1 western Indian, and 1 Moslem). The book shows each society which qualifies to become a civilization goes through 4 stages – genesis (coming together), growth, breakdown (which on the surface appears to be a Golden Age – can only be seen accurately in retrospect) and disintegration (when the fissures become apparent though many of the greatest technological, physical monuments are built this time).
Though there are common threads and principles which can be gleaned from historical experience in the first two stages, there is no substantial similarity, (each great civilization comes together and is created in its own unique way). The third stage is marked by an end to the creativity which led to its greatness and its replacement with superficially more appealing qualities which inevitably lead to the separating of the civilization into several parts. This does not mean annihilation in the fourth stage, only the 1 forming four distinct groups each with its own distinct characteristics, and twelve key markers which are exhibited by the civilization as a whole to a greater or lesser extent by each of the four groups, often in a different sequence ending in the same place. There are always some people who continue the old civilization in a less dominant form and others who start a new society which may or may not lead to another dominant civilization many years later.
The key lesson is that history repeats itself in (and only in) the last two stages of a final one of which has lasted anywhere from 10 to 200 years in the past as the four classes interests by this time are in almost total opposition but they march together to destruction as if bound by some social or moral imperative, powerless to do anything about it or even see the real cause of the demise of their State. Among the many examples, each of which is usually exhibited in usually as many as 18 of the 20, as they march down the same road are the assertion of political power by a religious group seeking return to the values of the past, effeminacy in the male population, increased political power for women, and all volunteer armies. To be clear though, these and many other examples are only characteristics of and reactions to the essential problem, and in no way are the problem itself or even causes of it. Then, something which is too complex and subtle to begin to explain here, but is most clearly exhibited to the popular consciousness by the Enron debacle, to use an example from recent American history with which most people are familiar. Events such as this and the reaction of those in power to it crystallize the conflicts between the different groups and lead to large numbers of people in the civilization ceasing to care whether it survives as a unit or not.
As the stresses within become apparently insurmountable and great efforts by all to compromise exhaust the political body, it ultimately fails. The weakened condition makes the civilization vulnerable to outsiders who turn the civilization’s own technology and institutions against it, causing its leaders to undertake a series of successive efforts to gain control through deprivation of long held rights. The "tightening of the screws" serves to further destroy the value and energy which gave the civilization its reason for existence, and the creativity which overcame even more daunting obstacles which stood in its way in the past.
There is a rhythm of seven beats which is often exhibited (though not as universally as the other qualities above mentioned) in which four blows occur. A partial recovery is made to the first three, then while still somewhat shaken from the first three, the fourth becomes a knockout punch which finally throws the civilization into a chaotic state from which it can't survive as an entity.
Toynbee’s hopes for western civilization are that the Christian religion has never been defeated and the free market economic system has given us a flexibility which none of the prior 20 had. As many as four saviours appear in succession in the political arena and give the people great hope, but all are ultimately defeated (for example, "a saviour with a sword" and "a saviour with a time machine"). The final act is civil ___*_ attack from the outside which can be no more violent than overwhelming immigration. It is an attack which would have been laughable at an earlier time when internal cohesiveness was greater and military power was more focused and its efforts concentrated more directly on the homeland.
Empire building is a prerequisite. The most crucial events take place totally beneath the radar screen, and even losses widely disseminated to the public are not believed initially by most people affected. Many remain in denial even after the end has come and act as if they are oblivious to it.
For a vivid though not perfect example of these principles read Thucides’ account of the Battle of Syracuse, which marked the beginning of the downfall of the Athenian empire, which was the glory of Greek civilization. Though first Alexander, then the Romans quickly stepped in to fill the vacuum and continue the dispersal of the civilization, and actually strengthened it on the surface even as these Greek institutions were crumbling to such an extent that a relatively small band of peripatetic tribes could easily destroy the capital city. The civilization remained dominant in faraway venues in these end times, and in the efforts to keep the civilization alive, there are many individual acts of heroism which give rise to legends which provided the seeds for germination of society today.
If other conditions and people come together and overcome sufficient obstacles, it can mark the beginning of an even greater civilization, though most such efforts are thwarted and reach a point where growth is stunted before a new culture is developed.
"Колкото повече знаеш, виждаш колко повече не знаеш"Редактирано от Oптимиcт на 28.06.08 22:02.
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Re: Гей - парад !Защо в София а не в Истанбул [re: Лин]
