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Нова статия на Trenberth по темата:
Has there been a hiatus?
Kато начало автора (един от най-известните климатолози) прави на нищо статията на NASA с която твърдяха, че тренда не се бил променял. Тук е в десятката- статията на НАСА е нелепа.
След това автора твърди, че:
Another reason to think there had been a hiatus in the rise of GMST comes from comparing model expectations and observations. Human activities are causing increases in heat-trapping greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels (4). These increases are expected to cause rising atmospheric temperatures. Atmospheric aerosols, mostly from fossil fuel combustion, are expected to reduce this rise to some extent. The increasing gap between model expectations and observed temperatures provides further grounds for concluding that there has been a hiatus.
в което е прав.
След което следва мнение, че PDO според него било много важно и после следва недоказуемото твърдение че:
Decadal variability also occurs in the Atlantic (10, 13), but the Pacific has dominated recent variability
с което съм напълно несъгласен и мисля, че бърка ролите на Пасифика и Атлантика но както и да е.
После казва нещо принципно вярно:
Because of global warming, numerous studies have found large regional trends over the past 40 years or so, the period for which we have the best data. However, the associated changes in the atmospheric circulation are mostly not from anthropogenic climate change but rather reflect large natural variability on decadal time scales. The latter has limited predictability and may be underrepresented in many models, but needs to be recognized in adaptation planning. Natural fluctuations are big enough to overwhelm the steady background warming at any point in time.
и т.н.
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Re: The strange idea that global warming has paused. [re: KT impactor]
