http://www.stratfor.com/default.htm?http://www.stratfor.com/crisis/kosovo/&2 The United States, Kosovo, and the Price of Building Coalitions 21 Apr 99 - 2049 GMT The United States has taken the most extreme position of any of the NATO members, with the possible exception of Britain, which is running in tandem with the United States. The United States is the one most vociferous in not compromising with Milosevic and insisting that a military campaign, even one including a ground war, is indispensable. It has therefore fallen to the United States to construct the war fighting coalition needed to execute the war. What has happened, therefore, is that the power of the less vociferous members of NATO has increased as American belligerence has deepened. Indeed, all nations whose geography or manpower might be needed in this war have dramatically increased their ability to extract concessions from the United States. Put simply, the United States has created a situation in which it can neither back off the war nor execute the war without the cooperation of others. Therefore, these others are in a position to make demands that the United States has to either meet or it loses their cooperation. Consider the case of Slovakia and Romania. Both are essential for an invasion of Serbia from the north. Slovakia’s rail and road system are critical for a troop buildup and sustenance in Hungary. Romania is critical if NATO would want to attack toward Belgrade through the Tisa river route. Both Slovakia and Romania were excluded from NATO during the first round. They did not measure up in terms of their democratic institutions. Now that NATO is once again trying to formulate itself as a war fighting entity rather than a gentleman’s club, Slovakia and Romania are essential, regardless of their commitment to democratic norms. It is clear that both countries, quite reasonably, are demanding membership in NATO as the price for taking the risks of war. We are, therefore, in a situation where the creation of a northern option against Serbia is driving the geopolitics of Europe. Slovakia’s membership in NATO is, geographically, indispensable. But including Romania in the alliance opens up massive military commitments in southeastern Europe with which NATO does not currently have the resources to deal. Moreover, expanding NATO again, or even promising, overtly or covertly, to expand NATO to include Slovakia and Romania, and even perhaps Albania, Macedonia and Bulgaria, will certainly trigger a massive break with the Russians. They will respond in other areas, such as Ukraine and the Baltic States, on the theory that as NATO expands, Russia’s own strategic sphere of influence will have to be rationalized. Изводите си правете сами