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| Тема |
 Чуждите анализатори са оптимисти за Б-я |
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| Автор | Toй e (Нерегистриран) | |
| Публикувано | 21.06.01 10:17 |
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Чужди експерти са оптимисти за бъдещето на България. Нещо повече - отваря се нова по добра страница за възможностите ни за реформи. Ще позволим ли на разни тъмни балкански субекти пак да саботират развитието на България?
Вижте част от едно мнение:
Charles Robertson
London (44 20) 7767 5310
charles.robertson@ing-barings.com
EU enlargement economist
SUMMARY
The parliamentary elections held on 17 June appear to
have secured another four years of economic reform for
Bulgaria, to build upon the successes of the last four
years. This is a highly positive result from elections that
even six months ago carried considerable uncertainty. It
should help accelerate growth, attract investment to
Bulgaria, and significantly reduce yields on Bulgarian
Bradies within the next 18 months.
nt
United Democratic
Forces (UnDF)
52.2 137
Democratic Left
(BSP)
22.0 58
Alliance for National
Salvation (MRF)
7.6 19
Euroleft 5.6 14
Bulgarian Business
Bloc (BBB)
4.9 12
The election results reflect a protest at the pain of economic reform, but
see pro-reform parties dominating the new parliament
A coalition of the NM-UnDF-MRF should continue the reform pace,
marrying the reform enthusiasm of the NM with the governing experience
of the UnDF
A broad coalition would allow a constitutional amendment that could let
Simeon run in the presidential elections in October
More worrying would be an attempt to bring back the monarchy as this
may require fresh parliamentary elections for a Grand National Assembly
which could push political and constitutional issues to the forefront of the
political agenda, rather than economic reform
Economic priorities of the NM are encouraging and should support EU
convergence with membership in 2007 perhaps becoming a realistic aim
Spreads on Brady debt can continue to compress from 610bp over US
treasuries to 350bp over by end-2002
Key indicators
2000 2001 2002 2003
Real GDP
(%ch YoY)
5.8 6.9 6.8 7.0
CPI (% ch
average)
10.1 7.5 6.0 4.4
Current
account
balance (%
of GDP)
-5.9 -4.5 -5.5 -5.9
Gross
external debt
(% of GDP)
86.5 77.4 69.3 57.4
Exchange
2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0
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